What does hindsight bias refer to?

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency of individuals to believe that they would have predicted an outcome or event after they have already learned the result. This cognitive bias often leads people to perceive past events as having been more foreseeable than they actually were. When an event occurs, individuals may subsequently reconstruct their memories and convince themselves that the outcome was obvious, even when it wasn’t clear at the time. This can affect how people interpret their previous knowledge and decision-making processes, often leading to an overconfidence in their ability to have anticipated the event.

This phenomenon is significant in psychology as it sheds light on how memory and perception can influence our judgments and beliefs about the past, potentially distorting our understanding of cause and effect.